On Feb 1, my Exxon cash secured put expire. With high probability I‘ll collect my credit. Feb 1, 2019 is the Exxon earnings day too, so everything is possible. In any case my investor point of view doesn’t change. Under $70 I am available to own XOM stock. Of course ,the lower the price the better.But Yesterday on Jan 31, I decided to enter in action.Let’s do our analysis.
OI tell me there is a resistance point around 75 (OTM Call) but I don’t see big support point (OTM Put).Maybe the earning date is conditioning the next week operativity. it’s not a problem , I will give a look at OI volume and if I find some premium under $70 I am available to place my order. I see some ITM call @72 , 71,5 and 70. Not many but it could be a good sign.
Under 70 , there are put volume @69 and 68.5. I’ll give a look in that area.
Max Pain 71.50.
I found two interesting situation @$69 and $68.5 AROI is respectively around 20% and 18%. At this point it’s just a question of greedy and aggressiveness. As OI don’t give me a comfortable picture I tend to be more conservative and I will opt for 68.5 strike . In case of assignment I will start to sell Covered Call.
Final Conclusion : On Jan 31, Sold 1 weekly CSP strike [email protected] Weekly return 0.4%, Annual return on investment 17.9%.